Antifragility and radioactive waste management

Abstract

It is not possible to quantify the future, since it is unknown to us. Mathematical models fail when the ambiguity of facts overrides them. Nevertheless, the traditional risk management, with its difficulty in predicting elements that challenge the linear thinking, has in recent years had a strong partner: Antifragility. Unlike disciplines that seek to mitigate the risks of the unpredictable, antifragility views uncertainty as desirable and necessary. It is a recent discipline that breaks the paradigm of always being more effective and efficient; instead, the focus is on the fragile points of an institution, and how to incorporate in it the ability to get stronger over time, as it is subject to stress. Decision making is ultimately a bet. And when it comes to strategic decisions, these are usually high-risk bets because they financially affect the organization, or even the safety of a group, a city, or a country. And the vast majority of decisions are increasingly being made in situations without the full picture of a defined causal model being available. In the case of the nuclear area, it is a field of intense control due to the risk of excessive radiological exposure, and as such it requires a rigorous and continuous risk management, including the management of radioactive waste which is produced in its most various fields of action. Based on this approach, this work seeks to analyze possible fragilities in the institutional, staff and technological areas of the Radioactive Waste Management Service of the Nuclear and Energy Research Institute, in the city of São Paulo, and therefore present potential solutions under the perspective of antifragility, aiming at improving the safety of the human being and the environment.